V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
21%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.45 — our 26% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
32%
Away Win
20%
+11.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
2.27/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.28
+32% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
449 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
376 Passes 438
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.06.2024 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 2-3 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
12.08.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 3-3 HT 2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.05.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-0 HT 2-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
14.09.2022 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
27.04.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
30.10.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-2
AWAY Mito HollyHock
69% Ball Possession 31%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mito HollyHock nicked a narrow win over V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was V-Varen Nagasaki at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 69% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 31%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.00 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Mito HollyHock?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J2 League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 45%, draw 24%, Mito HollyHock 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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