Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 3 Aug 2024

Fagiano Okayama
1-1 HT 0-0
Montedio Yamagata
📅03/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2024

Fagiano Okayama vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fagiano Okayama v Montedio Yamagata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.51/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.15
+17% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
348 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.0

Fagiano Okayama vs Montedio Yamagata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
198 Passes 454
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.05.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-2 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
16.09.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
03.05.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
30.10.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-3 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
10.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
31.08.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-2 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2

Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Montedio Yamagata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-1
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
54% Ball Possession 46%
27 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama and Montedio Yamagata couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 54% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 46%, shots finished 27-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.33 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Montedio Yamagata?

Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 38%, draw 26%, Montedio Yamagata 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fagiano Okayama), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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