ThespaKusatsu Gunma 6-2 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.12/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.01
-14% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
394 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.7 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
386 Passes 288
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
05.07.2025 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-3 HT 0-2 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP3
30.10.2021 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
25.04.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
02.12.2020 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
19.07.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
31.08.2014 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-3 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
6-2
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
430 Passes 320
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ThespaKusatsu Gunma cruised past Matsumoto Yamaga 6-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; ThespaKusatsu Gunma found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 56% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 44%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 1.17 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 6-2 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a ThespaKusatsu Gunma win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 38%, draw 27%, Matsumoto Yamaga 35%. The final score 6-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ThespaKusatsu Gunma), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ThespaKusatsu Gunma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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