Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 23 Dec 2025

📅23/12/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.48
2-3 Goals
45%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.84
6+ Goals
11%
8.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.93
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
17%
5.33
X/2
10%
7.07
X/X
8%
5.55
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
12%
4.54
2/X
10%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+0.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.4pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Beşiktaş EU Bookmakers 34%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.05/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.49
-43% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.0 Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Beşiktaş
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.43 xG 0.99
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
403 Passes 225
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2025 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 2-3 HT 2-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
04.05.2025 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-1 HT 0-1 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
07.12.2024 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
27.04.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
09.12.2023 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-3 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
02.04.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-4 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
1-2
AWAY Beşiktaş
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beşiktaş edged past Fenerbahçe 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fenerbahçe at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 58% of the ball to Beşiktaş's 42%, shots finished 9-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.67 for Beşiktaş.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş in the Turkey - Cup on 23/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 45%, draw 25%, Beşiktaş 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fenerbahçe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TÜK More Turkey - Cup
23 Dec 2025
15:00 Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK Analysis →
17:30 Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor Analysis →