Kocaelispor 3-1 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 23 Dec 2025

📅23/12/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
2.06
No
44%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.31
6+ Goals
14%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.31 — our 25% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.68
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
19.2
X/1
20%
3.77
X/2
7%
15.35
X/X
8%
6.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
2/2
5%
13.75
2/X
5%
22.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
68%
-8.3pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.8pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
44%
+11.1pp
44%
BTTS No
56%
-11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 15%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.41/2.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/4.33
-45% / -60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -44%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
426 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.61 xG 0.58
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
292 Passes 216
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
12 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-1 HT 0-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
23.08.2024 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
02.03.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
06.10.2023 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-1 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
01.05.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
10.12.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
3-1
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kocaelispor beat Erzurumspor FK 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kocaelispor as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 61% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 39%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kocaelispor had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kocaelispor and 0.50 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Kocaelispor 3-1 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - Cup on 23/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 60%, draw 21%, Erzurumspor FK 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kocaelispor), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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