Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 Ulm 1846 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 24 Jan 2024

📅24/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.18
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
15%
5.1
X/2
9%
6.13
X/X
11%
4.91
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
25.0
2/2
17%
4.11
2/X
7%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+1.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 37%
+11% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.30/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.65
+54% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
452 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ulm 1846
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
10 Corners 1
22.08.2023 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 1-0 HT 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
0-2
AWAY Ulm 1846
68% Ball Possession 32%
17 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Ulm 1846
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 got the better of Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arminia Bielefeld at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 68% of the ball to Ulm 1846's 32%, shots finished 17-8.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Ulm 1846?

Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 Ulm 1846 in the Germany - 3rd Division on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Ulm 1846?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 43%, draw 24%, Ulm 1846 33%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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