Southend United 4-1 Aldershot Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 24 Feb 2024

Southend United
4-1 HT 0-1
Aldershot Town
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - National League – 2023/2024

Southend United vs Aldershot Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 28% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.38
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
20%
4.29
X/2
10%
8.45
X/X
9%
5.21
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
12%
6.11
2/X
7%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.2pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Southend United v Aldershot Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southend United EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Aldershot Town EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.92/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.66
+19% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
411 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Southend United vs Aldershot Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southend United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aldershot Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.09.2023 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Southend United Southend United İBSL
18.03.2023 Southend United Southend United 1-2 HT 1-0 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town İBSL
26.11.2022 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Southend United Southend United İBSL
25.01.2022 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Southend United Southend United İBSL
14.09.2021 Southend United Southend United 2-3 HT 1-1 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town İBSL
16.04.2013 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Southend United Southend United İN2

Southend United 4-1 Aldershot Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southend United
4-1
AWAY Aldershot Town
68% Ball Possession 32%
25 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Southend United vs Aldershot Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southend United swept aside Aldershot Town 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Southend United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Southend United had 68% of the ball to Aldershot Town's 32%, shots finished 25-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aldershot Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Southend United and 1.50 for Aldershot Town.

What was the final score of Southend United vs Aldershot Town?

Southend United 4-1 Aldershot Town in the England - National League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southend United vs Aldershot Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southend United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Southend United 48%, draw 24%, Aldershot Town 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southend United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Southend United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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