Darlington 1883 2-1 Buxton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.82
2-3 Goals
32%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.13
6+ Goals
8%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 38% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.5pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.9pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Darlington 1883 EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Buxton EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.19/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.94
-12% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +41%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
268 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Darlington 1883
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Buxton
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Buxton Buxton 5-0 HT 3-0 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 İCON
21.02.2023 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 1-1 HT 0-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
25.10.2022 Buxton Buxton 2-1 HT 1-0 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Darlington 1883
2-1
AWAY Buxton
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Darlington 1883 vs Buxton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Darlington 1883 squeezed past Buxton 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Darlington 1883 found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Darlington 1883 had 61% of the ball to Buxton's 39%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Buxton led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Darlington 1883 and 2.67 for Buxton.

What was the final score of Darlington 1883 vs Buxton?

Darlington 1883 2-1 Buxton in the England - Conference on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Darlington 1883 vs Buxton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Darlington 1883 win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Darlington 1883 35%, draw 30%, Buxton 35%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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