Recanatese 1-0 Vis Pesaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
45%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.24
6+ Goals
10%
20.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 32% vs market 30.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
37%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
45%
Away Win
35%
+10.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.8pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Recanatese EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.22/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.72
+5% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +53%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
325 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Recanatese
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Vis Pesaro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
22.10.2023 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Recanatese Recanatese İTC
05.10.2023 Recanatese Recanatese 1-3 HT 0-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTCK
23.12.2022 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 0-1 HT 0-0 Recanatese Recanatese İTC
04.09.2022 Recanatese Recanatese 0-0 HT 0-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Recanatese
1-0
AWAY Vis Pesaro
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Recanatese vs Vis Pesaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Recanatese edged past Vis Pesaro 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Vis Pesaro at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Recanatese had 47% of the ball to Vis Pesaro's 53%, shots finished 12-16.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vis Pesaro led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Recanatese and 1.00 for Vis Pesaro.

What was the final score of Recanatese vs Vis Pesaro?

Recanatese 1-0 Vis Pesaro in the Italy - Serie C on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Recanatese vs Vis Pesaro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vis Pesaro win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Recanatese 30%, draw 25%, Vis Pesaro 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Vis Pesaro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vis Pesaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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