Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
18.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 29% vs market 28.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.08
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
13%
4.69
X/2
13%
6.52
X/X
9%
4.27
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
16%
4.9
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bordeaux EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.77/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.26
+0% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
18.2 Crosses 17.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bordeaux
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Guingamp
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.29 xG 1.14
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
407 Passes 264
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 0-0 HT 0-0 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR2
03.04.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 0-1 HT 0-1 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR2
27.08.2022 Bordeaux Bordeaux 0-1 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
20.02.2019 Bordeaux Bordeaux 0-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR1
23.09.2018 Guingamp Guingamp 1-3 HT 0-0 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR1
01.04.2018 Guingamp Guingamp 2-1 HT 0-0 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bordeaux
1-0
AWAY Guingamp
1.34 xG 0.48
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
315 Passes 251
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bordeaux vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bordeaux squeezed past Guingamp 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Bordeaux made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bordeaux had 54% of the ball to Guingamp's 46%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.34 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bordeaux and 0.67 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Bordeaux vs Guingamp?

Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bordeaux vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bordeaux win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bordeaux 38%, draw 26%, Guingamp 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bordeaux), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bordeaux) ✓ Under 2.5
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