Nacional vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-4
HT 1-3
Nacional
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
PRLK
3-0
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
3-0
HT 1-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Nacional
POR2
Nacional 3-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional edged past Penafiel 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Nacional had 53% of the ball to Penafiel's 47%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 2.94 to 0.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nacional's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional and 1.00 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Nacional vs Penafiel?
Nacional 3-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Nacional 50%, draw 27%, Penafiel 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.