Tondela 1-1 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.38
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.05
6+ Goals
8%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.8pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 33%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.26/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.19
-9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.6 Crosses 22.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.25 xG 1.91
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 10
427 Passes 305
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 4
01.10.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-2 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
1-1
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
0.78 xG 0.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 6
306 Passes 252
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela and Uniao De Leiria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tondela at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tondela had 54% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 46%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.78 to 0.72.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Uniao De Leiria?

Tondela 1-1 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tondela 44%, draw 26%, Uniao De Leiria 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tondela), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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