CA River Plate 1-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 24 Feb 2025

📅24/02/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.4
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
59%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
36%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
15%
+4.5pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.4pp
59%
Away Win
63%
-4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 67%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
0.81/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.69
+0% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +23%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
223 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA River Plate
0W-0D-6L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
340 Passes 283
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
14.07.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-3 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
30.04.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 2-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
22.10.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-3 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
19.03.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
08.03.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-4 HT 0-3 CA Penarol CA Penarol CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA River Plate
1-1
AWAY CA Penarol
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA River Plate vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA River Plate and CA Penarol couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. CA Penarol carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, CA River Plate had 52% of the ball to CA Penarol's 48%, shots finished 7-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for CA River Plate and 2.50 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of CA River Plate vs CA Penarol?

CA River Plate 1-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 24/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA River Plate vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split CA River Plate 20%, draw 22%, CA Penarol 59%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ BTTS No
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