Amorebieta 3-1 Sporting Gijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.51
Over 2.5
34%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.25
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
15%
5.49
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.25 — our 40% vs market 37.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.15
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.05
X/1
19%
5.35
X/2
14%
5.29
X/X
18%
3.52
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
10%
4.08
2/X
5%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+3.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.0pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.8pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amorebieta EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
0.83/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.26
-13% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +36%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
258 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
23.7 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amorebieta
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Sporting Gijon
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.87 xG 1.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
248 Passes 436
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-1 HT 0-0 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS2
23.01.2022 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-1 HT 0-1 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS2
02.10.2021 Amorebieta Amorebieta 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
07.01.2021 Amorebieta Amorebieta 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amorebieta
3-1
AWAY Sporting Gijon
1.73 xG 1.38
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
232 Passes 506
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Amorebieta vs Sporting Gijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amorebieta got the better of Sporting Gijon 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Amorebieta made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amorebieta had 35% of the ball to Sporting Gijon's 65%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.73 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting Gijon led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Amorebieta and 1.25 for Sporting Gijon.

What was the final score of Amorebieta vs Sporting Gijon?

Amorebieta 3-1 Sporting Gijon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amorebieta vs Sporting Gijon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amorebieta win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Amorebieta 39%, draw 31%, Sporting Gijon 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amorebieta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amorebieta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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