Valladolid 3-1 Eibar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 24 Mar 2024

Valladolid
3-1 HT 0-1
Eibar
📅24/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Valladolid vs Eibar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.52
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.71
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.84
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.75
X/1
19%
5.21
X/2
13%
5.45
X/X
13%
3.88
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
11%
4.1
2/X
6%
13.8
Value flag · 1/X at 13.75 — our 11% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+3.6pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valladolid v Eibar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Eibar EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.49/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.22
+52% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -34%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
26.0 Crosses 21.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Valladolid vs Eibar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Eibar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.08 xG 1.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 253
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Eibar Eibar 5-1 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
08.05.2022 Eibar Eibar 0-2 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
31.10.2021 Valladolid Valladolid 2-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
13.02.2021 Eibar Eibar 1-1 HT 1-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
03.10.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 1-2 HT 1-1 Eibar Eibar İS1
16.07.2020 Eibar Eibar 3-1 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1

Valladolid 3-1 Eibar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
3-1
AWAY Eibar
2.13 xG 0.52
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
549 Passes 248
93% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 5
42 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Eibar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valladolid saw off Eibar 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Valladolid as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valladolid had 67% of the ball to Eibar's 33%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 2.13 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Eibar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Valladolid and 1.83 for Eibar.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Eibar?

Valladolid 3-1 Eibar in the Spain - 2nd Division on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Eibar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 41%, draw 30%, Eibar 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valladolid) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valladolid) ✗ Under 2.5
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