Liberya 2-1 Sao Tome Ve Principe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 24 Mar 2025

📅24/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.75
No
58%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.92
6+ Goals
8%
18.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 34% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
32%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
4%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
72%
-6.8pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.5pp
14%
Away Win
8%
+5.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
32%
+9.7pp
58%
BTTS No
68%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liberya EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Tome Ve Principe EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / -22%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
419 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liberya
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sao Tome Ve Principe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
09.06.2024 Sao Tome Ve Principe Sao Tome Ve Principe 0-1 HT 0-0 Liberya Liberya DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liberya
2-1
AWAY Sao Tome Ve Principe
67% Ball Possession 33%
0 Corners 0
2 Passes 1
POST-MATCH Liberya vs Sao Tome Ve Principe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liberya edged past Sao Tome Ve Principe 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liberya as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liberya had 67% of the ball to Sao Tome Ve Principe's 33%.

What was the final score of Liberya vs Sao Tome Ve Principe?

Liberya 2-1 Sao Tome Ve Principe in the World Cup Qualifiers on 24/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liberya vs Sao Tome Ve Principe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liberya win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Liberya 66%, draw 21%, Sao Tome Ve Principe 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liberya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liberya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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