Roasso Kumamoto 0-1 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
42%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.58
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.35
6+ Goals
11%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
41%
-8.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
42%
Away Win
33%
+9.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roasso Kumamoto EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
261 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roasso Kumamoto
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
12.07.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-4 HT 2-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JPK
22.06.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-2 HT 1-1 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JPK
09.06.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roasso Kumamoto
0-1
AWAY Sagan Tosu
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Roasso Kumamoto vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu edged past Roasso Kumamoto 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sagan Tosu as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Roasso Kumamoto had 57% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 43%, shots finished 19-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Roasso Kumamoto and 2.33 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Roasso Kumamoto vs Sagan Tosu?

Roasso Kumamoto 0-1 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - League Cup on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roasso Kumamoto vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Roasso Kumamoto 32%, draw 26%, Sagan Tosu 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sagan Tosu), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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