ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-3 Kashiwa Reysol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
5.4
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
43%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
15%
+14.0pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.2pp
43%
Away Win
64%
-21.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 69%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
220 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-3
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Kashiwa Reysol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol saw off ThespaKusatsu Gunma 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kashiwa Reysol as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 51% of the ball to Kashiwa Reysol's 49%, shots finished 7-14.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Kashiwa Reysol?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-3 Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan - League Cup on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 29%, draw 28%, Kashiwa Reysol 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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