AEK Atina 3-0 Panathinaikos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.8
2-3 Goals
45%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.4
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
12%
4.36
X/2
11%
8.53
X/X
13%
5.02
2/1
9%
23.15
2/2
12%
6.17
2/X
10%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
51%
-10.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 27%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +27%
1.09/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.00
-16% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 76%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
23.3 Crosses 12.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Panathinaikos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.39 xG 0.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
328 Passes 239
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.04.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-1 HT 2-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
14.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-2 HT 1-1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
25.09.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-2 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.04.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0-0 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
19.03.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
08.01.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
3-0
AWAY Panathinaikos
3.32 xG 0.20
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
320 Passes 344
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 7
12 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina ran out comfortable winners over Panathinaikos 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AEK Atina as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, AEK Atina had 49% of the ball to Panathinaikos's 51%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 3.32 to 0.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AEK Atina and 0.83 for Panathinaikos.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos?

AEK Atina 3-0 Panathinaikos in the Greece - Super League on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 41%, draw 29%, Panathinaikos 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AEK Atina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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24 Apr 2024
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