Lamia 1-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 24 Apr 2024

Lamia
1-1 HT 1-0
PAOK
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
9.57
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
66%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.63
Over 2.5
55%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.96
No
61%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
21.2
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
6%
27.5
X/1
4%
25.5
X/2
18%
3.32
X/X
9%
8.06
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
38%
1.41
2/X
6%
27.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
7%
+7.0pp
20%
Draw
14%
+6.2pp
65%
Away Win
79%
-13.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
34%
+11.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
66%
-11.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.9pp
61%
BTTS No
53%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lamia EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 84%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
0.65/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.40
-32% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +78%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
217 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 84%
9.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.8
12.0 Crosses 22.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lamia
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PAOK
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.44 xG 1.91
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
181 Passes 538
69% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 42
8 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.04.2024 PAOK PAOK 3-1 HT 1-1 Lamia Lamia YUN
03.03.2024 Lamia Lamia 0-2 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
04.12.2023 PAOK PAOK 3-0 HT 2-0 Lamia Lamia YUN
13.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 1-0 Lamia Lamia YUK
08.03.2023 Lamia Lamia 1-5 HT 0-2 PAOK PAOK YUK
07.01.2023 Lamia Lamia 0-3 HT 0-2 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lamia
1-1
AWAY PAOK
0.43 xG 1.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
308 Passes 361
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 45
14 Crosses 31
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lamia vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lamia and PAOK couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PAOK at 65% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lamia had 46% of the ball to PAOK's 54%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.43 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lamia and 2.83 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Lamia vs PAOK?

Lamia 1-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lamia vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Lamia 14%, draw 20%, PAOK 65%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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