Atletico Madrid 3-0 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
12.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.88
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.45
X/1
21%
3.96
X/2
8%
12.35
X/X
11%
5.64
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
7%
10.6
2/X
6%
18.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
62%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 19%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
1.74/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.43
+13% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
407 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
18.6 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.57 xG 1.17
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
372 Passes 392
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
31.01.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
28.08.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-7 HT 0-3 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
09.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 0-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
18.10.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
19.03.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
3-0
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
2.29 xG 0.73
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
347 Passes 522
85% Pass Accuracy 91%
23 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid cruised past Rayo Vallecano 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 42% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 58%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.29 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.67 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Atletico Madrid 3-0 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 56%, draw 24%, Rayo Vallecano 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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