Bologna 2-1 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
1.75
Over Pick
63%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.33
No
45%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2.89
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
28%
3.88
6+
12%
17.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.68
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
21.15
X/1
16%
3.59
X/2
5%
16.4
X/X
7%
5.63
2/1
11%
27.5
2/2
11%
15.95
2/X
6%
25.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 11% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
68%
-10.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.7pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.5pp
37%
Under 2.5
53%
-15.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
47%
+15.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
39%
+16.2pp
45%
BTTS No
61%
-16.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
2.10/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.02
-3% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +111% / +41%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
452 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
17.7 Crosses 10.1
0.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Empoli
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.85 xG 0.80
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
486 Passes 198
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
01.04.2025 Empoli Empoli 0-3 HT 0-2 Bologna Bologna İTK
25.01.2025 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
31.08.2024 Bologna Bologna 1-1 HT 1-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
15.03.2024 Empoli Empoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
01.10.2023 Bologna Bologna 3-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
04.05.2023 Empoli Empoli 3-1 HT 2-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
2-1
AWAY Empoli
1.68 xG 1.16
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
476 Passes 173
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 5
22 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna edged past Empoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bologna as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Bologna had 70% of the ball to Empoli's 30%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.68 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bologna and 0.83 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Empoli?

Bologna 2-1 Empoli in the Italy - Cup on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Bologna 58%, draw 21%, Empoli 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bologna), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bologna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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