RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Apr 2026

📅24/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.53
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
2.79
6+ Goals
14%
7.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.9
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
13%
4.16
X/2
5%
11.05
X/X
8%
6.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
17%
20.0
2/2
11%
8.41
2/X
4%
16.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 17% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
61%
+1.6pp
18%
Draw
21%
-3.3pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.6pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.11/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.51
+3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +3%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
489 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
19.5 Crosses 18.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.83 xG 0.98
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
530 Passes 252
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.12.2025 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
01.02.2025 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
14.09.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
04.02.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
03.09.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-3 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
11.02.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
3-1
AWAY Union Berlin
4.49 xG 0.19
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
524 Passes 212
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig beat Union Berlin 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 67% of the ball to Union Berlin's 33%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 4.49 to 0.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.83 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?

RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 63%, draw 18%, Union Berlin 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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