Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Deportivo Recoleta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 24 Apr 2026

📅24/04/2026 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +7%
1.78/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.25
+15% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +66% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
383 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2026 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 2-2 HT 2-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
28.11.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
06.09.2025 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
22.04.2025 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
09.02.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
66% Ball Possession 34%
22 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion edged past Deportivo Recoleta 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nacional Asuncion as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 66% of the ball to Deportivo Recoleta's 34%, shots finished 22-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.80 for Deportivo Recoleta.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Deportivo Recoleta in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Asuncion win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 52%, draw 26%, Deportivo Recoleta 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional Asuncion), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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