Nacional de Football vs Progreso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional de Football v Progreso — Team-Based Signals
Nacional de Football vs Progreso Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Progreso
URU
1-3
HT 0-2
Nacional de Football
URU
0-1
HT 0-1
Nacional de Football
URU
Nacional de Football 1-0 Progreso — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional de Football edged past Progreso 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Nacional de Football had 69% of the ball to Progreso's 31%, shots finished 17-9.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.50 for Progreso.
What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Progreso?
Nacional de Football 1-0 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Progreso?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 59%, draw 23%, Progreso 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.