Al Ahed 4-1 Safa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 24 Jun 2026

Al Ahed
4-1 HT 2-1
Safa
📅24/06/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
13%
2/2
19%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahed EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Safa EU Bookmakers 30%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.70/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/0.68
-28% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
287 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahed
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Safa
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
13.12.2025 Safa Safa 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
12.07.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 1-1 HT 1-1 Safa Safa LUBN
15.06.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 1-2 HT 1-2 Safa Safa LUBN
01.05.2025 Safa Safa 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
18.02.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 0-0 HT 0-0 Safa Safa LUBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahed
4-1
AWAY Safa
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Ahed vs Safa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahed cruised past Safa 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahed as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Al Ahed had 37% of the ball to Safa's 63%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Al Ahed and 0.60 for Safa.

What was the final score of Al Ahed vs Safa?

Al Ahed 4-1 Safa in the Lebanon - Premier League on 24/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahed vs Safa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahed win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Ahed 45%, draw 26%, Safa 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahed), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahed) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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24 Jun 2026
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