Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.0
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.37
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
13%
4.35
X/2
10%
8.54
X/X
10%
5.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
2/2
10%
6.09
2/X
6%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.32/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.13
+22% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
354 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 69%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
13.3 Crosses 15.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
16.02.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-3 HT 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
08.12.2018 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
28.01.2014 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-0 HT 2-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
22.10.2013 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
23.02.2013 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
01.09.2012 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3-0
AWAY Carlisle United
2.59 xG 0.71
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 0
527 Passes 207
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
23 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons swept aside Carlisle United 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 67% of the ball to Carlisle United's 33%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.59 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.17 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Carlisle United?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 46%, draw 27%, Carlisle United 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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