Bedford Town 4-3 Leiston — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.53
No
53%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.8pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
61%
-13.8pp
53%
BTTS No
39%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bedford Town EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Leiston EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.64/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.70
+0% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
274 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 477 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bedford Town
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Leiston
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2023 Bedford Town Bedford Town 3-4 HT 2-3 Leiston Leiston İNGNLP
27.09.2022 Leiston Leiston 3-0 HT 1-0 Bedford Town Bedford Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Bedford Town vs Leiston
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bedford Town squeezed past Leiston 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Bedford Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Leiston led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bedford Town and 3.50 for Leiston.

What was the final score of Bedford Town vs Leiston?

Bedford Town 4-3 Leiston in the England - Non League Premier on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bedford Town vs Leiston?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bedford Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bedford Town 38%, draw 29%, Leiston 33%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bedford Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bedford Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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