Merthyr Town 3-1 Winchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
32%
4.34
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-12.7pp
32%
Draw
20%
+11.8pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.5pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Winchester City EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +15%
2.73/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.35
+32% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +45%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merthyr Town
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Winchester City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
16.04.2024 Winchester City Winchester City 2-0 HT 2-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
24.10.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
04.02.2023 Winchester City Winchester City 2-2 HT 0-2 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
27.09.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 5-2 HT 4-1 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs Winchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town got the better of Winchester City 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Winchester City led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Merthyr Town and 2.00 for Winchester City.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs Winchester City?

Merthyr Town 3-1 Winchester City in the England - Non League Premier on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs Winchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 50%, draw 32%, Winchester City 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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