Tobol 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 24 Sep 2025

📅24/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
21%
3.18
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.5pp
21%
Draw
28%
-7.2pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.54/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.00
+18% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ordabasy Shymkent
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
11 Corners 2
17.08.2025 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 2-3 HT 0-3 Tobol Tobol KAZP
19.10.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
12.05.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
25.02.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZSK
04.11.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 0-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
27.08.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-0 HT 0-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Ordabasy Shymkent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol squeezed past Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tobol and 0.67 for Ordabasy Shymkent.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Tobol 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent in the Kazakistan - Super League on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Ordabasy Shymkent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tobol 43%, draw 21%, Ordabasy Shymkent 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5
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