Paysandu 2-1 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 24 Oct 2024

📅24/10/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.6
Over 2.5
37%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.6
6+ Goals
7%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 34% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.2pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -17%
1.15/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.24
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
26.4 Crosses 17.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paysandu
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Coritiba
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 0.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
259 Passes 220
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 1-1 HT 1-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
28.10.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 1-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
05.07.2018 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
12.10.2005 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
02.07.2005 Coritiba Coritiba 3-1 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR1
30.10.2004 Paysandu Paysandu 0-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
2-1
AWAY Coritiba
3.89 xG 0.73
48% Ball Possession 52%
22 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
265 Passes 300
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu nicked a narrow win over Coritiba 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 32% / 31% — and on the day Paysandu made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paysandu had 48% of the ball to Coritiba's 52%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 3.89 to 0.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paysandu's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coritiba led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Paysandu and 1.33 for Coritiba.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Coritiba?

Paysandu 2-1 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 24/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 37%, draw 32%, Coritiba 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paysandu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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