Ponte Preta 2-0 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 24 Oct 2024

📅24/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.45
Over 2.5
30%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.16
No
65%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
12%
5.87
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.15 — our 41% vs market 39.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.7pp
34%
Draw
30%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.5pp
70%
Under 2.5
65%
+5.0pp
30%
Over 2.5
35%
-5.0pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.8pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
1.09/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.45
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -19%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
20.7 Crosses 16.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Brusque
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.99 xG 0.97
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
264 Passes 327
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.07.2024 Brusque Brusque 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
13.08.2022 Brusque Brusque 2-1 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
01.05.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 1-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
23.08.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-0 HT 2-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
30.05.2021 Brusque Brusque 2-1 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
2-0
AWAY Brusque
1.28 xG 0.63
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
192 Passes 323
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponte Preta got the better of Brusque 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 34% / 29%) promised a tight game; Ponte Preta found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 40% of the ball to Brusque's 60%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.28 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.80 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Brusque?

Ponte Preta 2-0 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 24/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponte Preta win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 38%, draw 34%, Brusque 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponte Preta), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ponte Preta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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