Pau 0-3 Dunkerque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 24 Oct 2025

📅24/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.36
6+ Goals
9%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 33% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.38
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
10%
5.37
X/2
11%
6.18
X/X
13%
4.77
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.2
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.59/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.25
+6% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 81%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.2 Crosses 17.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Dunkerque
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.31
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
345 Passes 325
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.01.2025 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 0-1 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
20.09.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 3-2 HT 2-1 Pau Pau FR2
09.03.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
02.12.2023 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
12.03.2022 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
24.09.2021 Pau Pau 1-2 HT 0-2 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
0-3
AWAY Dunkerque
1.01 xG 2.80
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
357 Passes 486
88% Pass Accuracy 90%
20 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pau vs Dunkerque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque cruised past Pau 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Pau at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pau had 44% of the ball to Dunkerque's 56%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.01 to 2.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dunkerque led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Pau and 1.50 for Dunkerque.

What was the final score of Pau vs Dunkerque?

Pau 0-3 Dunkerque in the France - Ligue 2 on 24/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Dunkerque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pau 42%, draw 29%, Dunkerque 29%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Pau), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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