Dunkerque 3-2 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.01
6+ Goals
8%
18.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 32% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.2
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
14%
5.87
X/2
16%
5.21
X/X
14%
4.14
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
18%
3.55
2/X
10%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-3.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+2.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -13%
0.93/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.54
-33% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 75%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
18.9 Crosses 17.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Pau
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.97 xG 1.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
315 Passes 355
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
02.12.2023 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
12.03.2022 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
24.09.2021 Pau Pau 1-2 HT 0-2 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
20.03.2021 Pau Pau 3-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
28.11.2020 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-2 HT 2-1 Pau Pau FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
3-2
AWAY Pau
1.55 xG 1.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
300 Passes 278
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque nicked a narrow win over Pau 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 40%) promised a tight game; Dunkerque found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dunkerque had 52% of the ball to Pau's 48%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.55 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dunkerque had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dunkerque and 1.17 for Pau.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Pau?

Dunkerque 3-2 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 31%, draw 30%, Pau 40%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
20 Sep 2024
21:00 Amiens SC vs Clermont Analysis →
21:00 Caen vs Ajaccio Analysis →
21:00 Guingamp vs Annecy Analysis →
21:00 Red Star FC 93 vs Stade Lavallois Analysis →
21:00 Martigues vs Grenoble Analysis →
21:00 Bastia vs Paris FC Analysis →