Caen vs Ajaccio Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Caen v Ajaccio — Team-Based Signals
Caen vs Ajaccio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Ajaccio
FR2
2-0
HT 0-0
Ajaccio
FR2
2-0
HT 1-0
Caen
FR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Caen
FR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Ajaccio
FR2
Caen 1-0 Ajaccio — Actual Match Statistics
Caen squeezed past Ajaccio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Caen had 63% of the ball to Ajaccio's 37%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 1.33 to 0.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Caen's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Caen and 0.83 for Ajaccio.
What was the final score of Caen vs Ajaccio?
Caen 1-0 Ajaccio in the France - Ligue 2 on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Caen vs Ajaccio?
Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Caen 45%, draw 28%, Ajaccio 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caen), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.