Ajaccio 2-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 20 Apr 2024

Ajaccio
2-1 HT 2-0
Caen
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Ajaccio vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.44
Over 2.5
34%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
17%
6.59
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.8
X/1
12%
4.57
X/2
9%
6.17
X/X
17%
3.26
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
14%
5.33
2/X
9%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.5pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
66%
-0.0pp
34%
Over 2.5
34%
+0.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.6pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajaccio v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajaccio EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.12/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.29
-7% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
323 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
20.6 Crosses 18.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Ajaccio vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajaccio
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Caen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 0.85
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
399 Passes 327
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Caen Caen 3-0 HT 2-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
24.01.2022 Caen Caen 2-0 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
25.08.2021 Ajaccio Ajaccio 2-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
16.01.2021 Ajaccio Ajaccio 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
29.08.2020 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 1-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2
24.01.2020 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajaccio Ajaccio FR2

Ajaccio 2-1 Caen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajaccio
2-1
AWAY Caen
0.84 xG 1.20
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
312 Passes 470
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ajaccio vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajaccio edged past Caen 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; Ajaccio found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ajaccio had 42% of the ball to Caen's 58%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.84 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ajaccio and 1.00 for Caen.

What was the final score of Ajaccio vs Caen?

Ajaccio 2-1 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajaccio vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajaccio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ajaccio 40%, draw 31%, Caen 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajaccio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajaccio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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