Paris FC 2-1 Valenciennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
23%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.76
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
20.0
X/1
18%
3.35
X/2
11%
14.85
X/X
8%
5.27
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
8%
13.4
2/X
7%
21.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-12.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
12%
+10.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paris FC EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.82/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.47
-13% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
19.6 Crosses 12.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paris FC
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Valenciennes
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.46 xG 1.09
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
444 Passes 295
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.01.2024 Valenciennes Valenciennes 2-1 HT 1-1 Paris FC Paris FC FRK
16.12.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 0-1 HT 0-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
01.04.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 4-5 HT 2-2 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
06.01.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FRK
08.10.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
30.04.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paris FC
2-1
AWAY Valenciennes
2.18 xG 0.19
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
660 Passes 235
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 6
17 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paris FC vs Valenciennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC squeezed past Valenciennes 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paris FC as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paris FC had 70% of the ball to Valenciennes's 30%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 2.18 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paris FC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paris FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Paris FC and 1.50 for Valenciennes.

What was the final score of Paris FC vs Valenciennes?

Paris FC 2-1 Valenciennes in the France - Ligue 2 on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paris FC vs Valenciennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paris FC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Paris FC 54%, draw 23%, Valenciennes 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paris FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paris FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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