Guingamp 0-1 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 20 Apr 2024

Guingamp
0-1 HT 0-1
Bastia
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Guingamp vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.56
Over 2.5
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.38
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.07
6+ Goals
9%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.4
X/1
17%
3.89
X/2
12%
8.28
X/X
13%
3.94
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
13%
7.25
2/X
6%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+8.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.2pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guingamp v Bastia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 25%
-8% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +6%
1.37/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.42
-18% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
22.8 Crosses 14.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Guingamp vs Bastia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bastia
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.91 xG 0.92
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
370 Passes 254
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Bastia Bastia 0-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
18.02.2023 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
22.10.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
16.04.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-2 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
06.11.2021 Guingamp Guingamp 2-3 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
11.03.2017 Guingamp Guingamp 5-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR1

Guingamp 0-1 Bastia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
0-1
AWAY Bastia
1.55 xG 0.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
354 Passes 282
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
34 Box Touches 15
37 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia nicked a narrow win over Guingamp 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Guingamp at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Guingamp had 55% of the ball to Bastia's 45%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.55 to 0.55 — on chances, Guingamp could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Guingamp and 1.00 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Bastia?

Guingamp 0-1 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 43%, draw 27%, Bastia 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Guingamp) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guingamp) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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