Valenciennes 2-1 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 20 Jan 2024

Valenciennes
2-1 HT 1-1
Paris FC
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Cup – 2023/2024

Valenciennes vs Paris FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.52
Over 2.5
55%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.03
No
48%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.29
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
5.25
6+ Goals
11%
33.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 5.25 — our 25% vs market 13.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.87
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
33.0
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
16%
6.0
X/2
17%
4.67
X/X
13%
3.63
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
18%
3.42
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.0 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.5pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
62%
-16.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
38%
+16.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.5pp
48%
BTTS No
55%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valenciennes v Paris FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris FC EU Bookmakers 43%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.15/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.38
-20% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.0

Valenciennes vs Paris FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valenciennes
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Paris FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.12 xG 1.78
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
332 Passes 423
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 0-1 HT 0-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
01.04.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 4-5 HT 2-2 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
06.01.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FRK
08.10.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
30.04.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
11.12.2021 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-4 HT 0-3 Paris FC Paris FC FR2

Valenciennes 2-1 Paris FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valenciennes
2-1
AWAY Paris FC
0.93 xG 1.09
31% Ball Possession 69%
4 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
164 Passes 496
67% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valenciennes vs Paris FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valenciennes squeezed past Paris FC 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Paris FC at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Valenciennes had 31% of the ball to Paris FC's 69%, shots finished 4-13, expected goals 0.93 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paris FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Valenciennes and 2.33 for Paris FC.

What was the final score of Valenciennes vs Paris FC?

Valenciennes 2-1 Paris FC in the France - Cup on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valenciennes vs Paris FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paris FC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Valenciennes 32%, draw 25%, Paris FC 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paris FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paris FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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