Le Puy 2-1 Dunkerque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
48%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.3
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
7%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 31% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.88
1/2
9%
25.0
1/X
4%
13.4
X/1
13%
6.77
X/2
15%
4.67
X/X
16%
4.62
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
24%
2.9
2/X
4%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-2.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
48%
Away Win
44%
+4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Puy EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 48%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.94/0.12
-100% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +85% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
256 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Puy
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Dunkerque
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2023 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 0-0 Le Puy Le Puy FR3
09.12.2022 Le Puy Le Puy 0-1 HT 0-1 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR3
29.11.2019 Le Puy Le Puy 1-2 HT 1-1 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Puy
2-1
AWAY Dunkerque
1.55 xG 0.64
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
272 Passes 360
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Le Puy vs Dunkerque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Puy edged past Dunkerque 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dunkerque at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Le Puy had 43% of the ball to Dunkerque's 57%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.55 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Dunkerque led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Le Puy and 1.33 for Dunkerque.

What was the final score of Le Puy vs Dunkerque?

Le Puy 2-1 Dunkerque in the France - Cup on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Puy vs Dunkerque?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dunkerque win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Le Puy 27%, draw 25%, Dunkerque 48%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dunkerque) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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