Pau 1-1 Dunkerque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 10 Jan 2025

Pau
1-1 HT 0-1
Dunkerque
📅10/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Pau vs Dunkerque Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.75
No
61%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 34% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.85
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
14%
5.57
X/2
12%
5.53
X/X
11%
4.41
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
22%
3.82
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
53%
-14.2pp
61%
BTTS No
47%
+14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pau v Dunkerque — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 39%
+4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.25/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.95
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
20.6 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9

Pau vs Dunkerque Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dunkerque
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.24 xG 1.09
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
332 Passes 317
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.09.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 3-2 HT 2-1 Pau Pau FR2
09.03.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
02.12.2023 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
12.03.2022 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
24.09.2021 Pau Pau 1-2 HT 0-2 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
20.03.2021 Pau Pau 3-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2

Pau 1-1 Dunkerque — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-1
AWAY Dunkerque
2.32 xG 1.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
370 Passes 344
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pau vs Dunkerque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau and Dunkerque shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Pau had 52% of the ball to Dunkerque's 48%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.32 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dunkerque led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pau and 1.50 for Dunkerque.

What was the final score of Pau vs Dunkerque?

Pau 1-1 Dunkerque in the France - Ligue 2 on 10/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Dunkerque?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dunkerque win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pau 36%, draw 25%, Dunkerque 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dunkerque), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dunkerque) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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