Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.5
6+ Goals
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 27% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.85
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
17%
5.83
X/2
11%
5.63
X/X
15%
4.59
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.67
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +18%
1.43/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.91
+11% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 79%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
20.8 Crosses 14.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.93 xG 1.84
43% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
317 Passes 465
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
17.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
08.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-1 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
14.08.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
30.04.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
05.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-1 HT 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Rotterdam
1-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.01 xG 0.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
439 Passes 394
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar edged past Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sparta Rotterdam had 52% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 48%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.01 to 0.14 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sparta Rotterdam.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sparta Rotterdam 38%, draw 29%, AZ Alkmaar 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ BTTS Yes
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