Matagalpa 1-0 Real Esteli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 24 Nov 2025

📅24/11/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.34
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
60%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.75
No
42%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
26%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
16%
+3.0pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
60%
Away Win
64%
-4.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.9pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Esteli EU Bookmakers 69%
+13% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.37/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.97
+36% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +6%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
222 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 534 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matagalpa
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Real Esteli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
14.09.2025 Real Esteli Real Esteli 2-1 HT 1-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
26.01.2025 Real Esteli Real Esteli 2-0 HT 2-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
28.10.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 4-1 HT 1-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
18.08.2024 Real Esteli Real Esteli 1-1 HT 1-0 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
15.03.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
25.11.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Esteli Real Esteli NİK
POST-MATCH Matagalpa vs Real Esteli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matagalpa squeezed past Real Esteli 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Real Esteli at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Esteli led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Matagalpa and 1.17 for Real Esteli.

What was the final score of Matagalpa vs Real Esteli?

Matagalpa 1-0 Real Esteli in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 24/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matagalpa vs Real Esteli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Esteli win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Matagalpa 19%, draw 22%, Real Esteli 60%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Esteli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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