Sutton United 1-0 Eastleigh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.9
Over 2.5
39%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
3.19
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
3.32
6+ Goals
7%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 34% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.59
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
12%
4.55
X/2
8%
7.74
X/X
14%
4.85
2/1
6%
23.85
2/2 EV+ ✗
19%
5.86
2/X
6%
14.35
Value flag · 2/2 at 5.86 — our 19% vs market 13.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
49%
+11.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
51%
-11.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.7pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sutton United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Eastleigh EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.54/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.69
-5% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
160 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 160 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sutton United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Eastleigh
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2024 Eastleigh Eastleigh 1-1 HT 1-1 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
24.04.2021 Eastleigh Eastleigh 1-0 HT 1-0 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
23.01.2021 Sutton United Sutton United 3-0 HT 2-0 Eastleigh Eastleigh İBSL
13.08.2019 Eastleigh Eastleigh 1-1 HT 1-1 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
19.01.2019 Eastleigh Eastleigh 3-2 HT 1-1 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
07.08.2018 Sutton United Sutton United 1-0 HT 1-0 Eastleigh Eastleigh İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sutton United
1-0
AWAY Eastleigh
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 4
0 Passes 0
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sutton United vs Eastleigh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sutton United squeezed past Eastleigh 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Sutton United found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sutton United had 52% of the ball to Eastleigh's 48%, shots finished 11-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sutton United and 1.00 for Eastleigh.

What was the final score of Sutton United vs Eastleigh?

Sutton United 1-0 Eastleigh in the England - National League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sutton United vs Eastleigh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sutton United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sutton United 40%, draw 28%, Eastleigh 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sutton United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sutton United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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