Queen Of The South 3-1 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queen Of The South EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 29%
-16% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +7%
1.53/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.76
-4% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
5.0 Crosses 3.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queen Of The South
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dumbarton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
5 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
16.11.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-1 HT 0-0 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South İK1
28.09.2024 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South 2-0 HT 1-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
16.07.2024 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South 2-0 HT 1-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKLK
20.07.2019 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-4 HT 1-4 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South İKLK
10.03.2018 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-0 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South İKCL
02.01.2018 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South 0-0 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKCL
POST-MATCH Queen Of The South vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queen Of The South beat Dumbarton 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Queen Of The South as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Queen Of The South had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Queen Of The South and 0.50 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Queen Of The South vs Dumbarton?

Queen Of The South 3-1 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 1st Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queen Of The South vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queen Of The South win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Queen Of The South 45%, draw 27%, Dumbarton 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Queen Of The South) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Queen Of The South) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İK1 More Scotland - 1st Division
25 Jan 2025
18:00 Alloa Athletic vs Inverness CT Analysis →
18:00 Stenhousemuir vs Cove Rangers Analysis →
19:00 Annan Athletic vs Montrose Analysis →