Burton Albion 4-2 Rotherham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.62
Over
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.43
2-3
38%
1.72
4-5
18%
4.35
6+
8%
23.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.43 — our 36% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.68
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
15%
6.93
X/2
23%
4.47
X/X
13%
4.09
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.92
2/X
6%
14.25
Value flag · X/2 at 4.47 — our 23% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.6pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rotherham United The Market 49%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
0.99/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.01
+0% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +37%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
220 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 67%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
18.0 Crosses 24.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rotherham United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.45 xG 2.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
208 Passes 218
61% Pass Accuracy 63%
20 Box Touches 34
17 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
14.09.2024 Rotherham United Rotherham United 2-2 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
19.04.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-0 HT 1-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İN1
11.12.2021 Rotherham United Rotherham United 3-1 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
01.02.2020 Rotherham United Rotherham United 3-2 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
17.08.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-1 HT 0-1 Rotherham United Rotherham United İN1
29.12.2016 Rotherham United Rotherham United 1-2 HT 1-2 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
4-2
AWAY Rotherham United
1.42 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
200 Passes 219
64% Pass Accuracy 64%
23 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Rotherham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion saw off Rotherham United 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Rotherham United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burton Albion had 47% of the ball to Rotherham United's 53%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.42 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rotherham United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Burton Albion and 1.67 for Rotherham United.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Rotherham United?

Burton Albion 4-2 Rotherham United in the England - 1st Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Rotherham United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rotherham United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 29%, draw 26%, Rotherham United 45%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rotherham United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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