Rotherham United 2-2 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
51%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.03
Over
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.77
2-3
39%
1.82
4-5
23%
3.23
6+
10%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.77 — our 28% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.1
X/1
21%
3.81
X/2
8%
9.73
X/X
11%
5.78
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
9%
7.44
2/X
6%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Rotherham United win — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
51%
Home Win
58%
-6.4pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.9pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rotherham United The Market 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion The Market 23%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.83/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.48
-4% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
282 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 64%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
29.4 Crosses 14.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rotherham United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Burton Albion
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.27 xG 1.69
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
197 Passes 194
60% Pass Accuracy 59%
33 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.04.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-0 HT 1-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İN1
11.12.2021 Rotherham United Rotherham United 3-1 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
01.02.2020 Rotherham United Rotherham United 3-2 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
17.08.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-1 HT 0-1 Rotherham United Rotherham United İN1
29.12.2016 Rotherham United Rotherham United 1-2 HT 1-2 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
03.12.2016 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 1-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rotherham United
2-2
AWAY Burton Albion
2.23 xG 0.70
48% Ball Possession 52%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
244 Passes 301
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 12
34 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rotherham United vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rotherham United and Burton Albion shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rotherham United at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Rotherham United had 48% of the ball to Burton Albion's 52%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.23 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rotherham United and 1.50 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Rotherham United vs Burton Albion?

Rotherham United 2-2 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rotherham United vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rotherham United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Rotherham United 51%, draw 25%, Burton Albion 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rotherham United) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
14 Sep 2024
14:30 Mansfield Town vs Cambridge United Analysis →
14:30 Northampton Town vs Wycombe Wanderers Analysis →
17:00 Shrewsbury vs Charlton Athletic Analysis →
17:00 Blackpool vs Exeter City Analysis →
17:00 Peterborough United vs Lincoln City Analysis →
17:00 Crawley Town vs Stockport County Analysis →