Chesterfield 1-1 Port Vale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
57%
1.78
Over
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.76
No Pick
60%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.91
2-3
38%
1.72
4-5
20%
3.6
6+
8%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.91 — our 34% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.12
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
9%
4.97
X/2
11%
6.56
X/X
11%
4.43
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.8
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.8pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
53%
-12.3pp
60%
BTTS No
47%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Vale The Market 33%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.21/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.17
+12% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
273 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 65%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
14.0 Crosses 17.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Port Vale
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.22 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
442 Passes 262
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 6
14.09.2024 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 1-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
30.03.2018 Port Vale Port Vale 2-1 HT 1-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
19.08.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-0 HT 2-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
08.04.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
30.12.2016 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
02.04.2016 Chesterfield Chesterfield 4-2 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
1-1
AWAY Port Vale
1.60 xG 0.27
75% Ball Possession 25%
17 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
447 Passes 88
85% Pass Accuracy 52%
26 Box Touches 14
36 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chesterfield vs Port Vale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield and Port Vale couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Chesterfield at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Chesterfield had 75% of the ball to Port Vale's 25%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.60 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chesterfield and 1.00 for Port Vale.

What was the final score of Chesterfield vs Port Vale?

Chesterfield 1-1 Port Vale in the England - 2nd Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesterfield vs Port Vale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 45%, draw 24%, Port Vale 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chesterfield), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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