Fleetwood Town 1-2 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.98
6+ Goals
8%
19.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.27
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
22%
4.03
X/2
7%
9.2
X/X
12%
4.54
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
11%
7.95
2/X
7%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.0pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 23%
-15% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.80/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.27
-45% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
313 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 62%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.2 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fleetwood Town
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Carlisle United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 1.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 Passes 294
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-3 HT 1-2 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN2
26.12.2023 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
05.08.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
20.09.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNTK
01.09.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNTK
20.07.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fleetwood Town
1-2
AWAY Carlisle United
0.85 xG 3.24
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
265 Passes 226
68% Pass Accuracy 68%
28 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United edged past Fleetwood Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fleetwood Town at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fleetwood Town had 54% of the ball to Carlisle United's 46%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.85 to 3.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carlisle United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fleetwood Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.17 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle United?

Fleetwood Town 1-2 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fleetwood Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fleetwood Town 49%, draw 26%, Carlisle United 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fleetwood Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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