Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fleetwood Town v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals
Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Carlisle United
İN1
1-1
HT 1-1
Fleetwood Town
İN1
1-1
HT 0-0
Fleetwood Town
İNTK
1-3
HT 1-1
Fleetwood Town
İNTK
1-3
HT 1-1
Fleetwood Town
HAZ
Fleetwood Town 1-2 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics
Carlisle United edged past Fleetwood Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Fleetwood Town at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Fleetwood Town had 54% of the ball to Carlisle United's 46%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.85 to 3.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carlisle United's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fleetwood Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.17 for Carlisle United.
What was the final score of Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle United?
Fleetwood Town 1-2 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fleetwood Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fleetwood Town 49%, draw 26%, Carlisle United 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.