Port Vale vs Chesterfield Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Port Vale v Chesterfield — Team-Based Signals
Port Vale vs Chesterfield Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield — Actual Match Statistics
Port Vale nicked a narrow win over Chesterfield 1-0.
Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Port Vale found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Port Vale had 39% of the ball to Chesterfield's 61%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 0.92 to 0.22.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Port Vale and 1.67 for Chesterfield.
What was the final score of Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Chesterfield?
Before kick-off our model rated an Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 36%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chesterfield), BTTS Yes went the other way.